Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Stock Forecast & Price Prediction 2026-2027

Algorithmic price targets and analysis for REFI based on fundamentals, valuation multiples, and historical data.

$12.09+0.33%
Bearish

Price Target Summary

Bear Case
$11.04
-8.7% from current
Base Case
$6.57
-45.7% from current
Bull Case
$11.82
-2.2% from current

Technical Outlook

52-Week Range Analysis

$11.62$15.67
Current: $12.09
Support Level
$12.03
Resistance Level
$15.27
From 52W High
-22.9%
From 52W Low
+4.0%

Fundamental Analysis

Revenue Growth Projection

Year 1 Projected
$55.4M
Year 2 Projected
$55.4M
Year 3 Projected
$55.4M

Based on +0.0% YoY growth, tapered 20% per year in outer projections.

Valuation vs Peers

Current P/S
4.60x
Sector Median P/S
2.5x
Assessment
Premium to sector

Cash Position

Cash on Hand
N/A
Total Debt
$49.3M

Key Metrics

Current Price$12.09
Market Cap$254.9M
P/S Ratio4.60x
Revenue (TTM)$55.4M
Revenue Growth (YoY)+0.0%
Gross MarginN/A
Cash on HandN/A
Total Debt$49.3M
52W High$15.67
52W Low$11.62

Signal Breakdown

Overall Signal: Bearish
  • Negative or flat revenue growth
  • Total debt exceeds cash position
  • Elevated P/S ratio relative to sector

Risk Factors

  • High debt-to-cash ratio: total debt of $49.3M significantly exceeds cash of $0.

Analyst Summary

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is a REIT cannabis company with contracting revenue and a market capitalization of $254.9M. Based on trailing revenue of $55.4M and a P/S ratio of 4.60x, the stock trades at a premium relative to the sector median of 2.5x. Our algorithmic base-case price target of $6.57 implies downside of 45.7% from current levels. The overall signal is bearish, as several fundamental metrics are under pressure. Investors should weigh the 1 identified risk factor before making any investment decision.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price target for REFI?+
Our algorithmic base-case price target for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance (REFI) is $6.57, with a bear case of $11.04 and a bull case of $11.82. These targets are derived from sector-average and premium P/S multiples applied to projected revenue.
Is REFI a buy right now?+
Based on our algorithmic analysis, REFI currently carries a bearish signal. Negative or flat revenue growth. Total debt exceeds cash position. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own due diligence.
What is the revenue forecast for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance?+
Based on the current year-over-year growth rate of +0.0%, we project REFI revenue at $55.4M in Year 1, $55.4M in Year 2, and $55.4M in Year 3. Growth rates are tapered in outer years.
What are the risks of investing in REFI?+
High debt-to-cash ratio: total debt of $49.3M significantly exceeds cash of $0.
How does REFI valuation compare to the cannabis sector?+
REFI has a trailing P/S ratio of 4.60x compared to the cannabis sector median of 2.5x. The stock premium to sector.

Important Disclaimer

This is not financial advice. Forecasts are algorithmic projections based on historical data and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Cannabis stocks carry significant risk including regulatory, market, and operational risks. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. Cannabismarketcap does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any security.

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